12:50 PM | *Major Hurricane Maria crosses Puerto Rico…still are some questions about its ultimate path and threat to the US cannot be ruled out*
Paul Dorian
The latest colorized IR imagery loop of Hurricane Maria shows a "filling in" of the eye as it crosses over Puerto Rico; images courtesy NOAA
Overview
Hurricane Maria made landfall earlier today near Yabucoa Harbor in Puerto Rico as a category 4 storm and the eye has become filled in recent hours as it passed over the mountainous terrain on the island. Maria’s center will move off the northern coast of Puerto Rico this afternoon in a somewhat weakened state and soon its current northwestward direction should become more northerly. Ultimately, Maria is likely to interact with the remains of Jose and it is still unclear as to how this will play out in terms of its chances of ever reaching the US east coast.
Discussion
At 11 am, the max sustained winds of Maria were estimated at 140 mph which maintains it as a category 4 storm; however, satellite imagery clearly shows some weakening has occurred in recent hours as the eye has filled in during its trek over the island and further weakening is likely. However, once Maria passes the island, it will likely regroup and regain some strength, but nothing like what it featured during the past 24 hours. Hurricane Maria's current northwest movement is likely to become more northerly over the next couple of days. Hurricane Maria should pass to the east of the Bahama Island chain by later this week and then, by early next week, it should be situated somewhere to the east of the Carolinas.
A 10-day loop of mean sea level pressure from the 12Z GFS for the Atlantic Ocean and eastern US featuring Tropical Storm Jose and Hurricane Maria (6-hour increments); maps courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC
At this point, the remains of Jose may interact with Maria and it is still unclear as to whether Jose will provide an atmospheric “escape route” for Maria to go out-to-sea or if there will some kind of push by Hurricane Maria towards the US east coast. Jose is currently moving in a northeastward direction and farther away from the Northeast US coastline; however, it will soon run into an atmospheric roadblock and this will likely force it to take a loop back around and towards the US east coast. Another player in the towards the end of the month will be a very strong trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that will likely be heading towards the east coast and it too could have an influence on Maria's path.
12Z Euro shows big-time upper-level trough heading into the eastern US in about 10 days and it could play a role in Maria's eventual path; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com
The 12Z GFS shows this interaction of Jose with Maria and this particular model run actually pushes the remains of Jose (albeit in a much weakened state) back to the Mid-Atlantic coastline while the much stronger Maria comes very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Stay tuned on this one, a tricky forecast.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com