There have been occasional cold air outbreaks from Canada into the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region during the month of April and this week will be no exception. In fact, low temperatures this morning were in the 30’s across many suburban locations along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with scattered frost in some areas. Another chilly air mass will push into the northeastern states at mid-week following the passage of a strong cold front and early Thursday morning is likely to feature more low temperatures in the 30’s with patchy frost again on the table.
Next week, however, will feature a big-time warmup across the eastern half of the nation coinciding pretty well with the transition from April into May. Temperatures can climb well up into the 70’s by Sunday afternoon in places like DC, Philly, and New York City and 80+ degrees is possible for highs on Monday and the upcoming pattern change will result in far less frequent outbreaks of chilly air from Canada into the US.
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Numerous signs point to an active tropical season this year in the Atlantic Basin with more tropical storms, hurricanes, and “major” hurricanes compared to the long-term averages. The average number of named tropical storms in an Atlantic Basin tropical season is 14.4 with 7.2 of those reaching (minimal) hurricane status, and 3.2 becoming “major” (1991-2020 baseline period).
Based on my overall analysis of current and forecasted atmospheric and oceanic conditions, I expect around 16 named storms this season with around 9 reaching hurricane status and of those perhaps as many as 4 to achieve “major” classification level. Another metric to use in the assessment of overall tropical activity is known as the accumulated cyclone energy or ACE which utilizes both strength and longevity of tropical storms in its calculation and I expect this to be 150-160% of normal in the Atlantic Basin this tropical season.
The two most important parameters that have been factored into the “2024 Tropical Outlook” include: (1) the development of La Nina in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean and (2) warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in much of the breeding grounds region of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea…both of which are favorable for the development and intensification of tropical activity. I believe the most vulnerable areas to be directly impacted this upcoming tropical season include those in and around the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Southeast US.
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Monday, April 15th, marked the 112th anniversary of the sinking of the RMS Titanic in 1912 and I thought I’d revisit the overall weather pattern that played a key role in the tragedy. By studying weather maps and written records from that time period, some definitive conclusions can be drawn about the weather during the trip across the Atlantic, and there are also some interesting relatively new theories involving atmospheric conditions and their possible effects.
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In August of 2017 America went crazy for the first coast-to-coast total solar eclipse on US soil since 1918 and it provided a great opportunity for scientists and all sky watchers. What was referred to as “The Great American Solar Eclipse” took place on August 21st, 2017 when the moon passed between the sun and earth. Total solar eclipses occur somewhere on Earth every year or so, but generally cast their shadows over oceans or remote land masses. If you missed the 2017 total solar eclipse or it turned out to be cloudy in your particular area then there will be another opportunity on Monday, April 8th. This time the Moon's dark shadow, about 115 miles wide, will cross Mexico, sweep northeast from Texas to Maine, and then darken the Canadian Maritimes.
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A double-barreled storm system will impact a large part of the nation from today through Thursday with an initial (primary) low located over the Upper Midwest and a secondary is to form later tomorrow near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The initial system is producing severe weather today across the Ohio Valley and there are waves of heavy rain running all along the “I-80” states from Illinois-to-Pennsylvania with “flash flood watches and warnings” issued in most areas. The severe weather threat will shift to the east on Wednesday raising the chances for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the southern Mid-Atlantic and eastern Carolinas.
Farther north, it is cold enough for accumulating snow today across portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin and some spots will get dumped on over the next 24 hours. The accumulating snow threat will shift a bit to the east to Michigan by later tonight and perhaps to the south on Wednesday into Iowa and Illinois. Once the secondary storm gets going near the east coast later tomorrow, the accumulating snow threat will shift from the Upper Midwest to the interior Northeast US and some spots in interior New York State and New England will get dumped on by the time Thursday evening rolls around.
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We all know the words…
“the weather started getting rough, the tiny shipped was tossed…”
Indeed, stormy weather played a critical role in the shipwrecking of the S.S. Minnow on that fateful day in late September 1964 onto an uncharted “desert” island somewhere in the Pacific Ocean. The ship set sail that day on a three-hour tour with five passengers, the captain of the S.S. Minnow, Jonas Grumby (aka Skipper), and his first mate named Gilligan. A sudden storm interrupted the tour, damaged the tiny ship, and the two-man crew somehow managed to steer the boat to safety onto an uninhabited island not far from the Hawaiian Islands.
For years, there has been a cloud hanging over the head of the Skipper as the result of conjecture that he was somehow at fault on that day in putting the passengers at risk. However, new evidence has come to light that should exonerate the Skipper once and for all from any wrongdoing.
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It is one of the best times of the year when you hear the phrase “Play Ball” and “Opening Day” comes tomorrow in many cities including New York, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Unfortunately, the weather will not cooperate with damp and cool conditions up and down the Atlantic seaboard putting the home openers in serious jeopardy for the Mets, Phillies, and Orioles. Low pressure is to form later today along a stalled-out frontal boundary zone and the result will be occasional rain or drizzle in the DC-Baltimore-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later today into tomorrow afternoon. Dry conditions are expected on Friday in each of these cities and with an open day in the schedule, it may be very tempting to simply postpone the openers by one day. If, in fact, these openers are postponed as I do believe they will be then they would quite likely be done so officially as early as this evening.
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It was just a matter of time…artificial intelligence (AI) has hit the numerical weather prediction world with a strong emphasis on “pattern recognition” and there is no telling where this will lead in the world of weather forecasting. Numerical weather prediction is well suited for AI as - in its current form - it requires a tremendous amount of data crunching and super computing power to resolve the physical laws of fluid dynamics to produce weather conditions in the future. One of the most notable AI advances in recent years has come with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts which is generating experimental AI forecasts that are made available to the public.
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An outbreak of colder-than-normal air in the Mid-Atlantic region earlier this week will be followed up by a second shot that arrives on Wednesday night following the passage of a strong cold frontal system. The approaching strong cold front will produce some rain shower activity in the southern Mid-Atlantic region and it is likely to be just cold enough for snow showers and perhaps even heavier snow squalls across upstate Pennsylvania and interior New York State. Following the passage of the front, temperatures will drop into the 20’s late Wednesday night and again late Thursday night…even in the immediate I-95 corridor region.
The cold air mass sticks around into the day on Friday and then attention will turn to a developing low pressure system that is likely to intensify as it pushes to a position just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Saturday morning. As a result, a heavy rain event is likely from late Friday night into Saturday from the I-95 corridor region to the coast. In fact, there is the possibility for as much as 2-4 inches of rain during the early part of the weekend in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor…watch out for localized flooding. Farther north, the early weekend storm system can bring substantial snowfall of a foot or more to ski country including upstate New York and much of northern New England. On the back side of the storm, winds can become very strong out of the N-NW with gusts possible up to the 40-50 mph range from late Saturday into Sunday and chilly air will push into the northeastern part of the nation.
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March is known to feature some crazy and surprising weather and the 1958 blizzard that occurred in the Mid-Atlantic region between March 18th and 23rd was indeed rather unexpected. In general, forecasts on the morning of March 18th had no mention of snow. This was in an era before computer forecast models were being utilized by weather forecasters on a daily basis and it was even before satellite imagery existed which could aid in the forecast. By afternoon on that particular day, the light rain had changed into huge, wet snowflakes and - for the next few days - history was being made.
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