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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

2:15 PM | Cold pattern for early March continues to look likely and snow threats still exist

Paul Dorian


We’ve talked about the strong likelihood of a cold weather pattern in the eastern states for at least the first part of March based in large part on the “teleconnections” pattern setting up with a negative NAO and positive PNA and there is no reason at all to waiver from that thinking. In fact, the latest computer forecast information is forecasting a persistently colder-than-normal pattern in much of the central and eastern US right into mid-March and this could actually become the coldest March in several years in some parts of the country.

What about chances for snow in the snow-starved Mid-Atlantic? The second half of this week will feature enough instability and (marginally) cold air that snow showers are possible at just about any time in the Mid-Atlantic, but perhaps a more serious threat for snow comes during the middle of next week (Wed., March 6th or so) as a wave of low pressure likely moves out of the Midwest towards the Mid-Atlantic coast. Both today’s Euro and GFS Ensemble model runs indicate such a threat exists for the middle of next week and there might even be another threat following that in another 3 or 4 days (March 10th or so).

We’ll continue to both monitor possibilities here at over the next several days. Bottom line, for now the cold pattern looks quite certain into early March, and snow threats continue to exist.