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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

3:00 PM Active pattern continues into mid-week; some interesting winter weather notes

Paul Dorian



Active pattern continues There are multiple disturbances headed our way in the Saturday-to-Monday time frame and each one could bring some snow to the Mid-Atlantic region and it is a good bet that we'll have some fresh snow cover by later Monday. The first system rides along the southern branch of the jet stream on Saturday and could produce a light snowfall in the area. The next couple of systems ride in from the west on the northern branch of the jet stream. The first northern system could produce a light snow event around here on Sunday and then the second northern system might have a little more punch to it and it could end up being more than just a “light” event late Sunday night/early Monday; especially, south of the PA/MD border [Canadian model forecast for early Monday]. Finally, the potential exists for a strong system to pull out of the Deep South around mid-week (Wednesday night/Thursday) and head towards the east coast with lots of available moisture.

General notes on the winter weather - Still a lot of cold air around the northern hemisphere… Great Falls, Montana dropped to 34 degrees below zero this morning for their coldest temperature in 18 years and Suhana, Russia bottomed out at 73 degrees below zero - The Great Lakes ice cover extent has now reached ~80% which is at a record high for the date and well above normal - The current US snow cover extent is around 68% - Tokyo, Japan could receive 6-12 inches of snow by tomorrow in the Japanese version of a nor'easter and this would be more than their yearly average. The upper-level trough associated with that storm in the Far East could actually play a role in the development of an eastern US trough around the middle of next week.