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Weather forecasting, detailed weather analysis and climate information

12:45 PM | **Wild weather in the Mid-Atlantic region from later tomorrow into Thursday to include spring-like warmth, rain, strong thunderstorms, possible damaging winds, plunging temperatures and snow showers**

Paul Dorian

NAM_wed_PM_sim_radar

Discussion

Overall Summary Wild weather is in store for the Mid-Atlantic region from later Wednesday into Thursday that could include all of the following: spring-like warmth, rain, strong thunderstorms, howling and perhaps damaging wind gusts, plummeting temperatures, snow showers and even icy spots on the roadways. A potent and intensifying storm, fueled by a vigorous upper level jet streak, will cross right over the state of Pennsylvania later tomorrow and it will swing an energetic cold front into the I-95 corridor that will produce wild weather and dramatic temperature changes in the region.

The "warm sector" weather details Powerful low pressure deepens rapidly later tomorrow reaching 984 millibars (29.06 inches) or so by the time it reaches the eastern part of Pennsylvania (12Z NAM surface forecast map for early tomorrow evening - below) and rain will break out throughout the region. Temperatures should spike tomorrow ahead of the front to 60+ degrees in the I-95 corridor and as the front approaches, a line of strong thunderstorms is likely to form (high-resolution 12Z NAM simulated radar map for early Wednesday evening - above, courtesy Penn State eWall]. This line of thunderstorms should reach the DC and Philly metro regions during the late afternoon or early evening hours and there can be some damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

NAM_wed_PM_984_mb_low

The "post-frontal system" weather details Once the front clears the region later tomorrow night, temperatures will nose-dive some 40 degrees or so from the spring-like afternoon highs to near twenty degrees by early Thursday morning. Winds will howl behind the front up to 50 mph or so producing a second opportunity for damage in the Mid-Atlantic region. Rain showers are quite likely to changeover to snow showers later tomorrow night in locations north and east of the PA/MD border as temperatures plunge to below freezing. While snow accumulations should be on the minor side in the I-95 corridor, there can be some icy spots that form given the expected rapid drop in temperatures to well below freezing levels by early Thursday morning. Winds stay strong on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region gusting up to 50 mph or so out of the northwest and high temperatures will be confined to rather amazingly cold levels for this time of year reaching only the upper 20’s or lower 30’s despite the return of partial sunshine.

Looking ahead to next week After a mild start to the weekend, colder air will move into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday. At the same time, moisture will be building in the Southeast U.S. and snow is indeed a threat in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region in the Sunday night/Monday time frame. In addition, there may be more cold air masses to deal with later next week along with other systems that could produce snow in the region.