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1:20 PM (Wed) | *Big warm up for Friday and Saturday...another cold shot arrives late Sunday and keeps us chilly into mid-week…deep upper-level low in the SE US early next week needs to be monitored*

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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

1:20 PM (Wed) | *Big warm up for Friday and Saturday...another cold shot arrives late Sunday and keeps us chilly into mid-week…deep upper-level low in the SE US early next week needs to be monitored*

Paul Dorian

Colder-than-normal conditions for much of the eastern US early next week; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Colder-than-normal conditions for much of the eastern US early next week; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Overview

It looks like we may have to wait a bit longer for sustained springtime warmth in the Mid-Atlantic region as despite a dramatic warm up on Friday and Saturday, we’ll turn sharply colder again for the first half of next week.  In fact, there can be a second cold shot late next week that makes its way into the Mid-Atlantic region which would mean we may have to wait until the second week of April for more sustained springtime warmth.   In addition, there will be a deep upper-level feature sliding across the southern states early next week with cold air in place across the NE US/Mid-Atlantic.  This system could push off the Carolina coastline and stay south of here, but it’ll be something to closely monitor in coming days to see if it can make a run up the eastern seaboard.

Warmer-than-normal conditions for much of the eastern US early this weekend; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Warmer-than-normal conditions for much of the eastern US early this weekend; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Details

Tomorrow is Opening Day for the Nationals, Phillies and Yankees and the timing will be just right as a significant warming trend will be getting underway in the Mid-Atlantic region.  After another cold night for late March, low-level winds will switch to a southwesterly direction on Thursday resulting in milder air for the Mid-Atlantic region and afternoon temperatures should climb to the lower 60’s in DC for the Nationals home opener and to near 60 degrees in Philly and NYC for the Phillies and Yankees opening games.  There can be an isolated shower tomorrow afternoon as well, but the bulk of the day, if not all, should be rain-free.

This warm up will intensify on Friday and Saturday and despite plenty of clouds on both days, afternoon highs in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor should be within a few degrees of 70.  Unfortunately, the warm up comes to a grinding halt on Sunday as a strong cold front slides through the Mid-Atlantic region with numerous showers and a much colder air mass will become quite noticeable by Sunday night along with a stiffening north-to-northwest wind.  Colder-than-normal conditions will persist through mid-week in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor resulting in a chilly start to the month of April.

Deep upper-level low over the Southeast US could spawn a coastal storm during the first half of next week; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Deep upper-level low over the Southeast US could spawn a coastal storm during the first half of next week; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

In the upper part of the atmosphere, there will be an interesting feature to closely monitor early next week.  An upper-level trough will intensify as it slides from the south-central states to the southeast US.  This strengthening upper-level low is likely to help generate a strong surface low near the southeast US coastline by Tuesday or so and it may make an attempt to push northward along the eastern seaboard.  It is too early to say how far north this potential coastal storm can go – perhaps no farther than the Carolinas – but if it manages to push into the Mid-Atlantic region, there will be plenty of cold air in place and snow is not out of the question across interior higher elevation locations…stay tuned.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com

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