11:50 AM | ***Signs continue to point to a powerhouse storm system that will have wide-ranging impacts this weekend and early next week from the Gulf of Mexico to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US***

A northern branch system will phase with a southern branch disturbance later this weekend resulting in a powerful storm system over the Southeast US which will then push northward through the east coast states. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Overview

Low pressure will slide across the southwestern states over the next couple of days and produce some significant snowfall in the higher elevations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. By the early part Saturday, this system will have moved to the central Gulf of Mexico where intensification will begin to take place. By Saturday night and early Sunday, tropical storm-like conditions will develop across Florida including heavy rainfall and strong winds and other sections of the southeast US as well.

On Sunday, this powerful low pressure system will push northward up along the Atlantic seaboard and heavy rain and strong winds will likely develop in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US later Sunday and continue into the day on Monday. Cold air will be lacking in the northeastern states - at least initially – when the storm is likely to get underway so rain will be the dominate precipitation type at the start. However, a powerful storm system like this sitting near the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US coastline can certainly draw in enough cold air for a changeover to snow from later Monday into Tuesday; primarily, across higher elevation, inland locations from upstate New York to northern New England.

The pressure gradient field associated with this storm system will tighten dramatically this weekend/early next week. Aided by a strong low-level jet streak, this can result in damaging wind gusts across much of the eastern US. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Details

A strong storm system impacted the eastern half of the nation this past weekend with severe weather, rain, snow and wind and signs are increasing for another powerhouse storm system that is likely to have wide-ranging impacts from now through at least the early part of next week. Low pressure is now pushing eastward across the southwestern states and will likely produce several inches of snow in the higher elevation locations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. After that, the storm will slide across the south-central states and head into the Gulf of Mexico region where vast moisture will be available for the taking. An upper-level low will spin south and east to the Gulf of Mexico region and deepen during the upcoming weekend.

Heavy rain and increasingly strong winds could reach the Mid-Atlantic region by later Sunday. Strong low pressure will push northward through the east coast states after pounding Florida earlier in the weekend. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

By late Saturday, this Gulf storm will begin a push to the east and likely result in tropical storm-like heavy rainfall and strong winds for Florida and other sections of the SE US as well. In the upper atmosphere, the low over the eastern Gulf will continue to deepen as it turns to the north and east and a northern stream system will begin to play an increasingly important role in the overall pattern. The northern system may very well begin to phase with the southern disturbance creating significant intensification of surface low pressure over the southeastern states by later Sunday. If indeed these two features phase together then the pressure gradient field will tighten dramatically between the intensifying low and departing high pressure well to the northeast - potentially resulting in damaging winds across the eastern states aided by a strong low-level jet streak. Heavy rain and strong winds are likely to spread northward into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from later Sunday into Monday and additional weather threats there could include beach erosion and flooding along coastal sections.

A soaking rainfall is on the table for the I-95 corridor from the upcoming powerhouse late weekend/early next week storm system with 2+ inches forecasted here by the 12Z GFS. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

With the lack of cold air at the onset, the likely dominate precipitation type throughout the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US would be rain from later Sunday into Monday afternoon. However, there is the chance that this intense storm system likely positioned near the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US coastline can draw in enough cold air from Canada to cause a changeover to snow. This is most likely to happen across the inland, higher elevation locations of upstate New York and New England and would take place in the later Monday/Tuesday time frame.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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