3:00 PM | **Potential for a significant storm system this weekend with wide ranging impacts from severe weather-to-heavy rain/strong winds-to-accumulating snow**

A deepening upper-level low pressure system will drop south and east early this weekend and then take a turn to the northeast possibly reaching the Tennessee Valley by the late weekend. As such, strong surface low pressure will form and potentially have an impact across a large part of the country with the possibility of severe weather down in the Deep South, strong winds and heavy rain along the eastern seaboard, and accumulating snow from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

Overview

It appears more and more likely that there will be quite a strong and impactful storm system this weekend which could have an impact on a wide part of the eastern half of the nation. If ingredients come together, this storm system could produce heavy rain along the eastern seaboard with strong and potentially damaging wind gusts, a strip of heavy snow from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and possibly some severe weather in the Deep South. On its heels, a cold air outbreak will encompass much of the eastern half of the country during the first half of next week.

Strong surface low pressure could reach the northern Ohio Valley by the late weekend with heavy rain, strong winds along the east coast and possibly accumulating snow in its cold sector across portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

Details

A deepening upper-level low pressure system may be the catalyst for the formation of powerful surface low pressure this weekend that can end up having a big impact across a large part of the eastern half of the nation. This upper-level low will push eastward from the Pacific Ocean later in the week and cross into the interior Pacific Northwest by later Friday. From this point, the upper-level low will drop to the south and east sliding into the south-central states by the early part of the weekend. Aided by an intensifying upper-level jet streak, this upper-level low will deepen substantially by later in the weekend and by the time Sunday morning rolls around, there is likely to be a strong upper-level low with a “negatively-tilted” trough axis sitting over the Lower Mississippi Valley.

If numerous atmospheric ingredients do indeed come together this weekend as is on the table, there can be an outbreak of severe weather across portions of the Deep South. Map courtesy NOAA/SPC

At the surface, strong low pressure may develop near the Texas/Oklahoma border region by the early part of the weekend and will take an inland track across the Tennessee Valley on Sunday and into southeastern Canada by early Monday. With this kind of track and given its strong upper-level support, there can be numerous kinds of weather effects across the eastern half of the nation. In the warm sector, severe weather could very well break out in the Deep South from later Saturday into Sunday and rainfall there could become heavy with strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. 

Accumulating snow is on the table this weekend from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes as depicted here for the 24-hour period from early Sunday to early Monday (12Z Euro). Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

Farther east along the eastern seaboard as the surface low pushes well to the north and west, a surge of warmer air could push northward riding in on strong and potentially damaging south-to-southeast winds. The rainfall can become quite heavy later in the weekend along the east coast and strong thunderstorms could become a factor as well pushing northeastward from the southern states. On the cold side of the storm, the potential exists for significant snow accumulations of 6 inches or more in the 24 hour period from early Sunday to early Monday in the region extending from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes.

Colder-than-normal air may encompass much of the eastern half of the nation by the time we get to next Tuesday or so on the heels of what may be a significant weekend storm system. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

On the heels of this storm system, a widespread cold air outbreak is likely to drop south and east from Canada and encompass much of the eastern half of the nation with colder-than-normal temperatures by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Stay tuned…there are many days to go before the weekend, but the potential is growing for a significant storm system which can impact a large part of the country.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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