All signs continue to point to the invasion of a brutally cold air mass into the north-central US next week that will make its way to the east coast around mid-week. As the Arctic air pushes towards the eastern seaboard, low pressure may form along the strong cold frontal boundary zone possibly resulting in some snowfall late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the Mid-Atlantic region. This upcoming Arctic air outbreak looks quite similar to the bitter cold air mass that impacted the central and eastern US during January 1985 which followed a major stratospheric warming event - much like what we have just experienced over the past several weeks. This kind of air mass is likely to become a news making event for the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and could result in actual air temperatures as severe as 25 degrees below zero or so in Chicago, Illinois – awfully close to their all-time record low of -27°F set in January 1985. The Great Lakes ice cover doubled in the past week and will increase dramatically over the next week.
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All signs point to the invasion of a brutally cold air mass into the central US next week that will make its way to the east coast around mid-week. This upcoming Arctic air outbreak looks quite similar to the air mass that impacted the central and eastern US during January 1985 which followed a major stratospheric warming event - much like what we have just experienced over the past several weeks. This kind of air mass has the potential of becoming quite a news making event for the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Northern Plains and could result in actual air temperatures as severe as 25 degrees below zero in Chicago – awfully close to the all-time low of -27°F set in January 1985.
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Despite the fact that it’ll turn unseasonably mild later tonight and early Thursday in much of the eastern US, the overall cold weather pattern shows no signs of slowing down. There will be another outbreak of cold air in the eastern US for the Thursday night/Friday/Saturday time period, but the coldest core of that air mass (relative-to-normal) will be centered over south-central and southeastern Canada. Next week, however, it looks like a brutally cold air mass will plunge southward right into the central US and eventually make its way to the east coast - and the coldest temperatures relative-to-normal will be in the US.
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There will be three different systems to deal with in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next week or so with a relatively minor storm tonight and then a major storm this weekend. Yet another storm could impact the Mid-Atlantic region with rain and/or snow by the middle of next week. Tonight’s system is likely to result in a coating to an inch or two in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with the higher amounts to the north and west of Route I-95 and lesser amounts to the south and east. A major storm will bring lots of precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend with everything on the table from heavy rain to accumulating snow and accumulating ice. An Arctic blast will flood the region on the heels of the storm late in the day on Sunday and this could result in a quick freeze-up and potential hazardous driving conditions. Single digit lows are likely by early Monday morning and the coldest day of the year so far will likely see temperatures struggling to get out of the teens in the I-95 corridor.
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A cold and stormy weather pattern is getting locked in for the eastern US and there may be three different systems to deal with over the next week or so. On Thursday, low pressure will head in this direction from the Ohio Valley and likely produce some snow around here on Thursday night. A much more significant storm is going to impact the I-95 corridor this weekend and everything is on the table for this event including rain, ice and/or snow. It is still too early to determine the magnitude of each precipitation type for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but accumulations of ice and snow are on the table. In addition, as the weekend storm pulls to the northeast later Sunday, Arctic air will flood the Mid-Atlantic region and any precipitation that lingers can change to ice and then snow before ending. Also, as temperatures plunge late Sunday, a “flash freeze” is possible in some areas with a quick ice up on roads, etc. The coldest air mass of the season so far will likely result in single digit lows in parts of the region by early Monday morning and highs may be confined to the teens to start the new work week.
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An active weather pattern is setting up for the next several days with two systems to monitor and an Arctic blast by the early part of next week. Low pressure will push out of the Ohio Valley on Thursday and likely produce accumulating snow in much of the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday night. That snow could end as a period of light rain or freezing rain early Friday which could make for an interesting AM commute to end the work week. The weekend will feature a strong cold frontal system sliding towards the east coast and a strong storm will form along the boundary zone. That system may bring us some rain, but snow and/or ice are possible at the front end and also on the back end…many, many details still have to ironed out. What is quite certain is that the coldest air mass of the season will arrive late Sunday on the heels of the weekend storm and Monday promises to be very cold.
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As we approach the middle part of January, it is time for a mid-winter review and many of the players on the field suggest a cold and stormy pattern is setting up for the central and eastern US and it could last well into February – perhaps even into March. Two of the big players on the field include a weak-to-moderate “Modoki” El Nino in the central part of the Pacific Ocean and a blob of warmer-than-normal water in the northeast Pacific. In addition, there has been a significant stratospheric warming event in recent weeks that will also play a role in the change to sustained colder-than-normal weather in coming weeks for much of the eastern half of the nation. Finally, low solar activity has been well-correlated with “high-latitude blocking” and that appears to be part of the overall pattern change in coming weeks. This unfolding cold and stormy weather pattern could very well include some extreme cold and the transition this upcoming weekend to some very cold air - the coldest so far this season - looks like it may be accompanied by a major storm along the eastern seaboard with significant rain, ice and/or snow.
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Accumulating snow is falling today in the Colorado Rockies and this storm system will spread snow this weekend from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Low pressure will be located over Oklahoma early tomorrow and generally head in an eastward direction towards the Tennessee Valley, and ultimately, will transfer its energy to the coastal region of North Carolina. Snow will break out early Saturday in the central Mississippi Valley and then advance eastward to the Ohio Valley by mid-day and to the Mid-Atlantic region during the late PM hours. On Sunday, as low pressure takes over at the North Carolina coastline, snow will wind down from northwest-to-southeast and it’ll last the longest in areas south of the PA/MD border. Heaviest amounts of snow during this upcoming weekend event in the Mid-Atlantic region are likely to take place in parts of Virginia, Maryland, Delmarva Peninsula and southern New Jersey.
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Accumulating snow continues to be a threat for the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with signs pointing to heavier amounts during this event in areas to the south of the PA/MD border. Low pressure will pull out of the southern US on Saturday and head towards the Tennessee Valley before ultimately winding up near the Outer Banks of North Carolina by late Sunday. Snow will break out on Saturday in the central Mississippi Valley and then push eastward to the Ohio Valley and then to the Mid-Atlantic region during the PM hours. On Sunday, as low pressure heads towards the North Carolina coastline, snow will continue in the Mid-Atlantic region with the heaviest amounts likely across Virginia, Maryland, Delmarva Peninsula and perhaps southern New Jersey.
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The last couple of weeks were well above-normal in the eastern half of the nation, but this week will be a lot different with progressively colder conditions. In addition, winds will become quite a factor as they will become very strong on Wednesday and Thursday with gusts to 50 mph possible in the DC-to-Philly-NYC corridor. As far as precipitation is concerned, a strong and active cold front will arrive later this evening with occasional rain showers and there can be a rumble of thunder. Looking ahead, snow continues to be a threat for the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. The chances for significant snow this weekend in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor will ride on the timing of the phasing together of waves of energy in the northern and southern jet streams. Early indications suggest the phasing together of these two systems may not occur until they’re both offshore which would reduce chances for important snow accumulations in the I-95 corridor; however, it is way too early to write off a significant snowfall for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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