All residents from North Carolina to Florida should closely monitor Tropical Storm Dorian over the next few days as it can have a major impact by later this weekend or early next week in any part of this region. Tropical Storm Dorian has strengthened over the past 12-18 hours and has effectively fought off dry air over the Caribbean Sea. In addition, the current track will take the storm over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the near term – largely avoiding the island of Hispaniola which could have resulted in substantial weakening given its rugged terrain. Once TS Dorian makes it past the Caribbean islands and into the southwestern Atlantic, it’ll move over very warm waters and encounter more favorable environmental conditions (e.g., low wind shear) for intensification. If TS Dorian doesn’t reach hurricane status in the next several hours, it is very likely to in the next day or two once out over the southwest Atlantic Ocean and “major” (category 3+) hurricane status is certainly on the table in a few days.
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Tropical Storm Dorian has been relatively stable over the past 24 hours in terms of intensity and it moved directly over the center of St. Lucia earlier today. The track of the tropical storm will likely bring it right near the area between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola over the next day or two and it will encounter some dry air along the way. After an encounter with these two Caribbean islands, whatever remains of TS Dorian will likely push to the Bahamas later this week and then ultimately to Florida during the upcoming holiday weekend.
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After a quiet start to the month in terms of Atlantic Basin tropical activity, the last week of August is beginning with one tropical system over the western Atlantic Ocean and a tropical storm nearing the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Dorian is fast approaching the Windward Islands and it could become a hurricane once over the warm waters of the eastern Caribbean. There is currently some dry air over the Caribbean Sea out ahead of Tropical Storm Dorian which could limit its intensification prospects later in the week and its ultimate track will be quite crucial. A track over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola Island, for example, would likely weaken the system, but that is not a certainty at this point. Finally, the eventual path and intensification of the initial tropical system over the western Atlantic could, in turn, have an impact on TS Dorian depending on its movement and development in coming days.
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A refreshing air mass for this time of year has arrived and the cold front that ushered in this change it is only slowing grinding its way through the region. As a result, occasional showers will continue this afternoon in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and some of the rain can come down hard at times. There can also be an embedded thunderstorm or two along the frontal boundary zone; primarily, to the south of the PA/MD border.
On the tropical scene, low pressure just east of the Upper Florida Keys at mid-day will slowly drift west over the next day or so which will move it over the Florida Peninsula and this should limit development. After that, this tropical system should push back to the northeast and over the western Atlantic where sea surface temperatures are running at warmer-than-normal levels. Consequently, this system should intensify later in the weekend and into the early part of next week - perhaps becoming the next named tropical storm or even a hurricane.
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There is a refreshing air mass headed our way for this weekend and there are signs that there could be a repeat performance for next (Labor Day) weekend as well with both air masses backed up by strong high pressure to the north and west. The transition from today’s warmth and high humidity to below-normal temperatures will likely come with one more round of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms as the cold from arrives late this evening. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday as the front grinds its way through the region, but late tomorrow and much of the weekend will feature drier weather and comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.
On the tropical scene, low pressure will meander off the eastern seaboard over the next several days and given the warm waters in that part of the western Atlantic, tropical storm formation is not out of the question. Later next week or during the Labor Day weekend, there are signs for some potential activity over the Gulf of Mexico where sea surface temperatures are quite warm as well.
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There is a much cooler air mass headed this way for Friday, Saturday and Sunday and it’ll be an active stretch of weather in the Mid-Atlantic as we make that transition from today’s heat and humidity to the weekend comfort. There is a threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and northeast US as a surface low pressure trough will combine with high humidity and upper-level energy to destabilize the atmosphere later in the day. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue from Thursday/Thursday night into Friday as a strong cool front only slowly grinds its way through the region. Elsewhere, a minimal tropical storm (Chantal) has formed out over the open Atlantic Ocean and is no threat to the US; however, another system now near the Bahamas will have to be closely monitored in the coming week or so.
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It has been quite awhile since Barry reached tropical storm status over the Gulf of Mexico and then made landfall (briefly) as a hurricane in southern Louisiana – the first hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic Basin tropical season. In fact, there is currently no activity across the Atlantic Basin and none is likely over the next five days or so. There are signs, however, for activity to ramp up later this month and a more active pattern is looking more and more likely for September as well.
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An active weather pattern is setting up for the I-95 corridor for later today/early tonight extending all the way from the Carolinas to New England. There is an approaching vigorous wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere that will combine with diurnal heating and an advancing surface frontal boundary zone to destabilize the atmosphere over the next few hours and the result will likely be widespread showers and thunderstorms between about 2 and 9 PM in the I-95 corridor. Any storm that forms later today can produce torrential rainfall, flash flooding, and perhaps even damaging wind gusts. Looking ahead, a second frontal system will pass through the region early Friday and it’ll be followed by a much more comfortable air mass for the weekend with noticeably lower humidity levels.
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An active couple of days is in store for the Mid-Atlantic region with scattered showers and thunderstorms today and more widespread showers and thunderstorms later tomorrow. There is a wave of upper-level energy setting off some powerful and slow-moving thunderstorms at mid-day along the Delaware River region of the Mid-Atlantic and an even stronger system will likely generate numerous showers and thunderstorms later tomorrow into tomorrow night. Any of these thunderstorms can produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding given the well-saturated grounds. Looking ahead, a beautiful air mass for August will arrive on Friday and provide comfortable weather conditions for the weekend.
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The Mid-Atlantic region has experienced generally rain-free conditions over the past several days, but heavy downpours are on the table for this afternoon and evening. A cool front is edging this way and the result will be slow-moving showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Any slow-moving shower or storm can produce heavy rainfall amounts in a relatively short period of time and some of the storms can reach severe levels potentially producing damaging wind gusts. Given the still well-saturated grounds in the Mid-Atlantic region, any heavy rainfall can result in flash flooding conditions.
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