An approaching upper-level trough of low pressure now crossing the Great Lakes will cause Hurricane Dorian to accelerate to the northeast later today and well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic region. The storm is now near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and has weakened in the overnight hours to category 1 status with max sustained winds at 90 mph. Some rain and wind can extend back to the I-95 corridor later today, but the bigger impacts will take place along coastal sections of New Jersey and Delaware where heavier rain bands will take place along with 40-50 mph wind gusts from a northeasterly direction. Coastal flooding is a threat at time of high tide later this afternoon. The weekend is shaping up to be quite nice throughout the Mid-Atlantic region with very comfortable temperatures and humidity levels for the early part of September and plenty of sunshine each day.
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Hurricane Dorian has regained some strength in the overnight hours and has been re-classified as a “major” category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. It is moving slowly to the NNE at 8 mph and is currently just off the coast of South Carolina. There will be a major impact over the next 24 hours by Hurricane Dorian in the coastal Carolinas in places like Charleston, South Carolina and Wilmington and the Outer Banks in North Carolina. By mid-day Friday, Hurricane Dorian will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and it will become increasingly influenced by an advancing upper-level trough over the Great Lakes. As a result, Hurricane Dorian will accelerate to the northeast on Friday and pass well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic, but some impacts are likely that will in many ways resemble a “nor’easter” with the greatest impacts along coastal sections. Looking ahead, by no means does it look like the Atlantic Basin tropical season will slow down with the departure of Hurricane Dorian as numerous tropical waves are lining up over the continent of Africa.
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Hurricane Dorian has regained enough strength in the overnight hours to be re-classifed as a "major" (category 3) storm. It is moving slowly to the north at only 8 mph near the coastline of South Carolina with maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. Hurricane Dorian will have a significant impact today and tonight on the coastal Carolinas in places like Charleston, South Carolina and Wilmington and the Outer Banks in North Carolina. On Friday, Hurricane Dorian will become increasingly influenced by an advancing trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes and this will cause it to accelerate to the northeast and well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic region. However, its impact will still be felt in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday as Hurricane Dorian becomes "post-tropical" and, in many ways, it'll be just like a "nor'easter". There will be some rain and wind across the region on Friday with the greatest impacts of the storm along coastal sections of New Jersey and Delaware where tropical storm force (northeast direction) winds of 30-50 mph are possible and there can be some coastal flooding as well. All of this clears out of here by the weekend which should be very comfortable for this time of year.
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Hurricane Dorian remains a category 2 storm at midday and it has picked up a bit of forward speed now moving NNW at 9 mph with 105 mph maximum sustained winds and a central pressure of 964 millibars. Gusty squalls are rotating around Hurricane Dorian and impacting much of the coastal region in northeastern Florida as well as coastal sections of Georgia, South and North Carolina. Hurricane Dorian is likely to at least maintain its category 2 strength as it moves closer to the Carolina coastline and it very well could undergo some intensification as it heads over warmer waters of the Gulf Stream and leaves “upwelling-induced” cooler water behind. By early Friday, Hurricane Dorian will move to a position over the Outer Banks (NC) and will become increasingly influenced by an advancing trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. This upper-level feature will cause it to accelerate to the northeast passing well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday, but important impacts are still on the table for coastal sections.
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Hurricane Dorian is now about 90 miles east of Daytona Beach, Florida moving to the NNW at 8 mph with max sustained winds at 105 mph (category 2). It will parallel the northeast coastline of Florida today and then move towards the coastlines of Georgia and the Carolinas. By later tomorrow, Hurricane Dorian will head right over the Outer Banks of North Carolina and will begin to be influenced by an upper-level trough of low pressure pushing southeast across the Great Lakes. As a result, Hurricane Dorian will begin to accelerate to the northeast and should slide well east of the Mid-Atlantic region late tomorrow night and Friday. Much cooler air will arrive here tomorrow following possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and tonight and the pleasant air mass will stick around for the upcoming weekend.
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Hurricane Dorian has finally resumed some movement today as the latest measurements have it moving to the northwest at 2 mph after being stationary for nearly 24 hours. From later today into Wednesday, Hurricane Dorian should turn north-northwest and run parallel to the east coast of Florida as it picks up some forward speed. It’ll then close in on the Carolina coastline by Thursday where it is not out of the question that it makes a landfall somewhere on its way to the Outer Banks (North Carolina). After that, Hurricane Dorian will likely pass well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline from Thursday night into Friday with its greatest impact limited to coastal sections.
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Hurricane Dorian continues to remain nearly stationary this morning just north of Grand Bahama Island and should resume a slow northwestward movement later this morning. From later today into Wednesday, Hurricane Dorian should turn north-northwest and run parallel to the east coast of Florida as it picks up some forward speed and then it'll close in on the Carolina coastline by Thursday. After that, Hurricane Dorian will likely pass well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline from Thursday night into Friday with its greatest impact limited to coastal sections of New Jersey and Delaware. As Hurricane Dorian has been nearly stationary over the past day or so, upwelling has increased underneath its center and this has brought cooler waters to the sea surface. In turn, the cooler sea surface temperatures have resulted in a weakening of the hurricane from a category 5 system to category 3 now with max sustained winds at 120 mph. Much cooler air arrives here later this week and it'll stay rather pleasant heading into the upcoming weekend.
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Major Hurricane Dorian is now a category 5 storm and continues to be a significant threat to Florida and the to rest of the US east coast. It is now moving westward at 8 mph with max sustained winds at 160 mph and is approaching the northwestern Bahamas. By tomorrow, powerful Dorian will be slowing down to a crawl as it crosses over the NW Bahamas and closes in on the east coast of Florida. Later tomorrow and Tuesday, as Dorian makes its closest approach to the east coast of Florida, the hurricane will begin a turn toward the northwest/north and likely begin to move parallel to the coastline. Since there is still some uncertainty with the track forecast and a slight shift will make a huge difference, the eastern part of Florida remains under the threat of direct impacts from Dorian; especially, near the coastline. Later in the week, Dorian is likely to take a ride up along the east coast impacting the coastal Carolinas and perhaps eventually impacting the Mid-Atlantic region and New England.
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A serious weather situation continues to unfold as Hurricane Dorian intensifies and continues on a path towards the Bahamas and Florida with possible landfall later Monday into Tuesday. Hurricane Dorian has reached category 2 status as of early Friday morning and could reach “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3) later in the day. High pressure ridging in the upper part of the atmosphere is a key player in the intensification and movement of Hurricane Dorian and it should result in additional strengthening over the next couple of days – perhaps to category 4 status.
As Hurricane Dorian nears the northwestern Bahamas later this weekend, the upper-level ridge will tend to weaken and this is likely to result in a slowing down of the system. The weakening ridge may also allow for a turn to the northwest as Hurricane Dorian approaches Florida and then a turn to the north and northeast once near or just over land. This could very well result in a slow trek up along the eastern seaboard later next week; in other words, we may still be talking about Hurricane Dorian a week from now.
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High pressure will maintain control of our weather for much of the upcoming holiday weekend. Temperatures will be generally comfortable for the next few days and much of the time will be rain-free. Meanwhile, on the tropical scene, Hurricane Dorian - now a cat 2 - remains a major threat for the SE US and especially the Florida Peninsula as it will encounter favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the next couple of days which should result in the attainment of “major” hurricane status for the storm. There is a chance that Dorian turns up the east coast later next week after a likely hit on the Florida Peninsula so that is something we’ll closely monitor over the next several days.
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