Low pressure will head our way late Sunday and produce snow and ice north of the PA/MD border and a wintry mix to the south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Road conditions can become slick from late tomorrow into early Monday with small accumulations of snow and/or ice. By the middle of the week, we’ll have to deal with a stronger storm and this one could result in significant precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic region including accumulating snow, ice and rain.
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Low pressure will ride along a stalled out frontal boundary zone on Saturday moving in a west-to-east direction and its precipitation field will likely not extend farther north than central Virginia with little or no impact expected in DC, Philly and NYC. A second low pressure system will likely result in some snow or snow showers late Sunday in areas north of the PA/MD border and a mix of rain and snow showers to the south of the Mason-Dixon Line.
By the middle of next week, we’ll have to deal with a third low pressure system - easily the most intriguing and potentially significant - as this one will have the plenty of moisture available to it. In addition, the mid-week storm is likely to have cold air in place ahead of it with strong, cold high pressure positioned to our north and northwest. The overall pattern that is unfolding for the mid-week storm raises the chance for an extended period of frozen precipitation in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor including accumulating snow.
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After an unseasonably mild end to the work week, colder air will move into the region for the upcoming weekend following the passage of a strong cold front which will stall out across the Carolinas by tomorrow. Low pressure will ride along the stalled out frontal boundary zone moving in a west-to-east fashion and its precipitation field should stay primarily to the south of the DC metro region on Saturday. Another system can bring a mix of rain and snow showers here by Sunday night, but this too will not be a significant event. A third low pressure system with more available moisture is likely to impact the region by the middle of next week and it could bring us a combination of snow, sleet and rain.
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Three different low pressure systems will threaten at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region over coming days and this active weather pattern is currently featuring a powerful storm in California. The precipitation shield from the first wave of interest for the Mid-Atlantic region looks like it will have its northern extent stretching from around the DC metro region to Atlantic City, NJ. The second system is likely to be rather weak and could result in light rain and/or snow from Sunday night into early Monday. The third threat to monitor in coming days looks like it will have more moisture available to it and may result in another snow-to-ice-to-rain scenario in the Mid-Atlantic come late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Meanwhile, in California, heavy rain continues to fall along coastal sections and heavy snow continues to pile up over the Sierra Nevada Mountains with some incredible snow amounts.
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An active weather pattern will result in three different systems to monitor over the next several days for possible impact in the Mid-Atlantic region. Today will be a quiet and milder day and then temperatures will climb to near 60 degrees on Friday ahead of a strong cold frontal system and there can be a few showers to end the work week. Colder air moves in behind the front for the weekend and low pressure is likely to head towards the Carolinas on Saturday. The precipitation shield for this system is likely to extend as far north as the DC metro region early Saturday, but that is still a close call. A second system is likely to bring a wintry mix to the region on Sunday night/early Monday and then a third system could do the same on Tuesday night and/or Wednesday.
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There is ample empirical evidence that environmental phenomena in one part of the world can have a causal connection to another part of the world and several of these “climate anomalies” are tracked by meteorologists through teleconnection indices. Several of these teleconnection indices are currently suggesting that a cold and stormy stretch of weather is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region which may result in numerous winter storm threats beginning as early as this weekend and perhaps continuing into the month of March.
The teleconnection indices analyzed here include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The MJO is related to a tropical disturbance that propagates around the global tropics on a regular basis. The SOI provides us with information on pressure differences across the Pacific Ocean and on the “El Nino Southern Oscillation” (ENSO) state. The AO and NAO indices provide us with information on the pressure and temperature patterns across the North Atlantic/Arctic region. All of these indices are heading into territory which suggests that a cold and stormy weather pattern is unfolding for the Mid-Atlantic region and it could last awhile.
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High pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region today and a strong pressure gradient will develop between this incoming high and the departing low pressure system now over southern Canada. As a result, winds will pick up in intensity by mid-day and could gust past 40 mph to go along with the mainly sunny skies. A cold frontal system is likely to bring a few showers here late in the work week and then it'll turn colder for the upcoming weekend. The influx of colder air this weekend could play an important role as one or possibly two low pressure systems have a chance of impacting the DC region...stay tuned.
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Low pressure will continue to generate some rain for the region with any freezing that remains confined to some untreated surfaces in the northern and western suburbs as we begin the day. A cold front will sweep through the region later tonight and there is a slight chance that any leftover precipitation could change to sleet and/or snow before winding down completely by early Wednesday. Another low pressure system is destined to impact the region late in the week, but in this case, they’ll be no strong high pressure to the north; consequently, it should be liquid and not frozen.
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“Round 1” of our extended winter weather event is winding down and “round 2” is about to get underway. The first part of this long event brought some accumulating snow to the Philly metro region and a combination of snow and ice to the DC area while NYC stayed precipitation-free. “Round 2” will result in heavier overall precipitation amounts with accumulating snow and ice in Philly and NYC and an icing threat for some of the suburbs to the north and west of DC.
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An extended and significant winter weather event that began last night will continue into tomorrow as copious amounts of moisture flows our way from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. A mix of freezing rain and sleet this morning may change to plain rain for awhile later today, but then as temperatures drop back to near freezing tonight there will be more sleet and freezing rain with an ice buildup possible; especially, in suburban locations to the north and west of the District. A wintry mix on Tuesday will then change to plain rain as winds pick up and temperatures climb above freezing. More frozen precipitation is possible late tomorrow night for a brief time as the storm winds down.
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